4. Climate Change Data

Created: 31 October 2024 Updated: 28 January 2025

We have created information which indicates the possible impacts of climate change on future risk. We have selected the scenarios from our Flood risk assessment: climate change allowances considered most relevant to the expected uses of the data. Our allowances include anticipated changes to: 

• Peak river flow 

• Peak rainfall intensity 

• Sea level rise 

• Offshore wind speed and extreme wave height 

The climate change allowances are based on the latest UK Climate Projections (UKCP18) from the Met Office, using the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5.  

Our Flood risk assessment: climate change allowances include several different allowances reflecting the range of possible future climates. They also provide allowances for different periods of time, acknowledging that some users will want to look further into the future than others. The periods of time vary for each source of risk because equivalent datasets for each source are not always available.  

Check Your Long-Term Flood Risk is aimed at supporting individuals, communities and organisations making short- and medium-term decisions to manage future flood risk. We have therefore chosen: 

• the ‘Central’ allowance for the 2050s epoch (2040-2069) for risk of flooding from rivers 

• the ‘Higher Central’ allowance for risk of flooding from the sea, accounting for cumulative sea level rise to 2065 

• the ‘Central’ allowance for the 2050s epoch (2040-2060) for risk of flooding from surface water.  

Flood Map for Planning is aimed at supporting planners and developers making long-term decisions about the location and design of development and the use of land. Such decisions need to account for the full anticipated lifetime of the development being planned. We have therefore chosen: 

• the ‘Central’ allowance for the 2080s epoch (2070-2125) for risk of flooding from rivers  

• the ‘Upper End’ allowance for risk of flooding from the sea, accounting for cumulative sea level rise to 2125.  

The National Coastal Erosion Risk Map and the Shoreline Management Plan Explorer website are aimed at supporting coastal managers and planners making short and long-term decisions to manage current and future coastal erosion risk. This information is also available to the public. For coastal erosion risk, we will publish data for both ‘Higher Central’ and ‘Upper End’ allowances between now and 2055, and between now and 2105.  

For more detail on which allowances we are using and why, see the related announcement ‘Detailed data list’.